It's been interesting watching the debate over needed reforms to the financial system, mainly because it is reflective of where both parties are at politically in 2009.

Many Democrats like the idea of increased oversight and regulation of the financial industry, pointing to examples of how a lack of regulation might have contributed to the collapse of companies like AIG.

On the opposite side of the coin, Republicans caution the Obama Administration not to go too far, arguing that excessive regulation could end up restricting innovation and growth in the future.

Both sides have a point.  But right now, Democrats have the votes.

What will be interesting to watch is the power of the Wall Street lobby when it comes to financial regulatory reform.

Do not underestimate the strength and power of Big Business and Wall Street to water down what some Democrats want to achieve.

A week ago, we were talking about how the House had easily approved a bill levying a 90% tax on bonuses awarded to AIG executives and anyone employed by a firm that was getting federal bailout money.

But a few days later, the air was out of the balloon, and that legislative measure seemed to have disappeared into thin air.

Do you think that happened by chance?  I doubt it.

And don't misunderstand my point there.  I'm not saying this is some kind of terrible conspiracy against reform.

This is called power.  And the guys who have lots of money to hire good lobbyists can't be ignored when you try to figure out what's going to happen.

For example, there were calls yesterday at a hearing for the feds to not only regulate, but even outlaw financial instruments like credit default swaps, which have become a metaphor for the financial troubles at AIG and other companies.

Here is my thought on that:  Don't think for a minute that's going to happen.  You could almost hear the eyebrows of Secretary of Treasury Geithner scrunching up when he was asked, why not get rid of credit default swaps?

"You could," said Geithner, "but I don't think it would help."

This regulatory battle will involve a lot of lobbying in the Congress.  I'm sure there will be big changes, but I wouldn't bet against the guys with the money on Wall Street.

They may not really understand the political climate right now, either in the Congress or around the nation, but they know how to hire lobbyists who do know the right buttons to push.

Give me $20 across the board on them.  In fact, wheel them on top as well.