Statistics guru Nate Silver was a source of reassurance for nervous Democrats during the 2012 presidential election with his consistent predictions that President Obama would win re-election, even as pundits and many polls were predicting a very tight race.
But now, his predictions will be good news for the Republicans, with his forecast out Sunday (March 23rd) saying that the GOP is a "slight favorite" to take control of the Senate in the midterm elections this fall.
Silver said on his new venture, FiveThirtyEight.com, that Republicans currently have about a 60 percent chance of winning at least six Senate seats, which is what they need to have a majority in the Senate.
His previous forecast for the Senate, done last July, had it at a toss-up.
He wrote yesterday, "The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before.
Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions."
Silver has caveats though -- for both parties.
He says that several factors could still affect the outcome, writing, "The balance has shifted slightly toward the GOP. But it wouldn’t take much for it to revert to the Democrats, nor for this year to develop into a Republican rout along the lines of 2010."