Posted: 1:40 p.m. Thursday, March 7, 2013
First off, lets get the obvious stuff out of the way: If Kentucky wants to make the NCAA Tournament this year they need to win games. Alex has already done a fine job covering that term of the equation and if you want to read about what the Cats need to do you should click over and read his piece.
This is the other side. Kentucky isn't trying to meet set criteria - they are competing against all the other bubble teams out there. As Cal said, bids are handed out on a curve. SOMEONE has to fill the 37 At-Large slots available so other teams losing can be just as helpful as Kentucky winning.
Using Bracket Matrix, here are the teams competing for at-large spots. I started with the last at-large selection indicated and took the next 16 teams listed ahead of them. Their remaining regular season games are listed if applicable, otherwise their seed in the conference tournament is given. Obviously teams with regular season games also have conference tournaments next week.
|Bracket Matrix||Remaining Games|
|Creighton||MVC Tournament: 1 Seed|
|California||PAC 12 Tournament|
|Colorado||Oregon, Oregon St|
|Wichita St||SMVC Tournament: 2 seed|
|St. Mary's||WCC Tournament: 2 Seed|
|La Salle||@St. Louis|
|Middle Tennessee||Sun Belt Tournament: 1 Seed|
|Virginia||@Florida St; Maryland|
|Boise St||San Diego St|
|Last 4 In|
|Belmont||OVC Tournament: 1 Seed|
|Iowa St||@West Virginia|
|Villanova||Big East Tournament|
An argument can be made that Akron and Louisiana Tech should also be included here in the event that they don't win their conference tournaments, but I didn't include them. You should be rooting for them to win the automatic bid though.
Here's the next 8 out:
|First 4 Out||Remaining Games|
|Southern Miss||Central Florida|
|Massachusetts||Butler, @Rhode Island|
|Next 4 Out|
So now you know who to watch for, here's some advice on rooting interests:
Root to Win their Conference Tournament: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, and either Creighton or Wichita St. These are teams that would get strong consideration for at-large selection from leagues that will otherwise not get anyone else in (probably). Creighton and WSU are probably both in regardless, so root for one of them to get the auto-bid.
You can root against them, but they're probably in: Oklahoma, Cal, Colorado, and Cincinnati are all high enough that they likely are in regardless of what happens the rest of the season. St. Mary's gets a bye to the semifinals of their tournament which limits the damage they can do to themselves. They'll most likely make the WCC Finals and that will be enough.
Lose! Lose like its going out of style! Virginia, La Salle, Temple, Boise St, Iowa St, Villanova, and everyone in the next 8 out. These are the teams Kentucky is in competition with the most. All of these teams have losable games remaining and if things really break Kentucky's way the Cats could move up simply because everyone else falls back. These are the teams you most want to see lose their remaining games and then go out early in their conference tournaments.
Obviously we all want UK to finish with a flourish and make it on their own merits. But it's okay to root against other teams - you don't have to be embarrassed! Everyone needs a little extra help now and then - it's the great ones who know how to accept it.